Linking climate and migration: An emergent playbook from Europe’s Far-Right
2022 is drawing to a close. It has been – suffice it to say – an eventful year. And one would be remiss to make any predictions as to what 2023 will bring about. ‘Rising prices,’ ‘inflation,’ and ‘the cost of living’ are at the top of Europeans’ concerns. ‘Immigration’ and ‘the environment and climate change’ follow suit as top issues. Climate has been escalating the ladder of concerns, while immigration is no longer as prominent as it used to be yet remains relatively high (albeit never the highest concern).
The current situation of polycrisis, compounded by the consequences of a lingering pandemic, leave us with a social and political landscape that is volatile and exploitable. But while the far-right’s playbook is clear when it comes to migration, it is far less so when it comes to climate.
On refugees and immigration, that playbook is straightforward and familiar: target an identity-based group, present it as a threat, exploit fears, construct a notion of belonging tied to an exclusionary view of the nation, and double down on anti-migrant and nativist discourse.
Far-right discourse on the climate crisis is not yet as clearly articulated or homogeneous across countries. Even across regions. In recent years, authoritarian populists are shifting from fringe climate denialism (although human intervention is still sometimes questioned) to embracing a vision that recognizes a certain kind of climate change which can be used rhetorically to prop their particular vision of what each country ought to be.
Marion Marechal, an influential far-right thinker and niece of Marine Le Pen (the leader of the French far-right party Rassemblement National), who nonetheless joined forces with the even more extremist Zemmour in the last French elections, a few years ago made a notorious speech on how environmentalism is conservatism which is forever etched in my memory for her undeniable rhetorical skill.
On a political pivot, Hungarian Prime Minister went “green” as long as it is for a “Christian-democratic” society, denoting who that society excludes: non-Christian, arguably non-white people. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni from the far-right Brothers of Italy is now apparently seeking to make climate change an issue of their own.
Some efforts are laughable. A few days ago in Spain, the popular and charismatic president of the Madrid region made headlines with her anthropogenic climate “denialism,” which she connected to communism and corporate interests:
“Right now there is a market and an international wave that imposes uses and customs that are favoring poverty for those whose hands are full […] has an agenda that goes against consumption and labor […] since the earth exists there has always been climate change, there have been cycles, we will have to develop palliative measures but you [referring to political opponent] cannot go against scientific evidence because you have something else in your heads: communism.”
Her attempts at connecting issues may be laughable to activists and thinkers who speak of intersectionality and have been advocating for years to connect the social justice and climate justice agendas. But we should stop laughing if we pause to realize what’s at stake.
The far right is incredibly effective at connecting issues. In Europe, they are becoming more and more skilled at connecting anti-corporate and anti-corruption sentiment with anti-migration discourse. And now, it seems, also to climate change. Some scholars are now speaking of ‘ecobordering’, a strategy of casting immigration control as a way of protecting the environment of the nation. As The Guardian’s environmental respondent explained: a “wrapping of ecological disaster with fears of rampant immigration is a narrative that has flourished in far-right fringe movements in Europe and the US.” It is “a current of rightwing thought that has shifted from outright dismissal of climate change to using its impacts to fortify ideological, and often racist, battle lines.”
If migration and climate issues start to gather more attention, a new opportunity emerges for the far right to skillfully weave climate concerns into their discourse.
And they are.
In November, tensions between France and Italy repeatedly escalated over a migrant boat. Italy redirected it to dock in Toulon and then France halted plans to relocate 3,500 asylum-seekers in response.
On Sunday November 13th, according to the British Ministry of Defence, the number of channel crossings hit a new record high (more than half coming from Albania, Afghanistan, and Iran). British Home Secretary Suella Braverman came under fire for claiming that asylum-seekers were engaged in an ‘invasion’ of the south coast as controversy also arose over the overcrowding of Manston “migrant processing center” which was holding up to 4,000 people, more than double its 1,600 person capacity.
At the same time, electorally the Tory party is polling abysmally and is confronted with the challenge of holding together a loose coalition that emerged from a unique 2019 general election. According to commentator Sam Freedman, “many Tories see immigration as a key topic to keep these voters on board,” as that group of “that group of 2017/2019 switchers are typically strongly anti-immigration.” But while Tories are no authoritarian populists, if this is their strategy (morality aside), they may be paving the way for the extremists.
The EU’s Voluntary Solidarity Mechanism, an already weak scheme to enable the transfer of asylum seekers from Southern countries to other states across the bloc, is flailing.
As covered by Politico, ‘The EU has outsourced a big chunk of its migration policy to a fleet of privately run boats searching the Mediterranean waters for asylum seekers in crisis [...] boats — run by a variety of NGOs not directly controlled by any specific government — have become the focal point of a mounting tempest over migration as countries fret about a new influx of people and squabble over where they should be placed within the EU.’
The EU’s Commission has greenlighted Romania, Bulgaria, and Croatia’s accession into the Schengen zone, but for this to happen all member states need to vote unanimously, and it seems that the prospect of migration from these states to Western European nations is the key issue that may lead countries like Austria and the Netherlands to oppose accession as the “EU preps plan to quell migrant influx from the Balkans.”
This wonderful report by Africa Climate Mobility Initiative (let me emphasize that it is worth checking, even the visuals are stunning) shines light on what climate change means in terms of mobility for the continent. Based on this data, “The number of people moving to seek protection and better livelihoods will increase from 1.5% of Africa’s population today to as many as 5% by 2050. This amounts to about 113 million people.” And while the truth is that the movement across borders is expected to be relatively minimal, nothing prevents far-right actors from using these numbers to scare people and build support for exclusionary migration policies.
Is the far right going to succeed at skillfully connecting these issues to their advantage? And the question that I keep pondering—can they profit from thought leaders and advocates’ intersectional efforts at raising awareness and connecting both topics? And if so - how do we avoid it? Would love your thoughts if you have more ideas, or answers.
In other news…
Lawmakers in France have started the process to include abortion rights in the constitution. The first step, the vote in the lower house of parliament, passed with 337 lawmakers in favour and 32 against.
Forum member Renata Ćuk shared this lecture on race, othering, and European borders along the Balkan Refugee Route. Highly recommend watching it.
It seems the EU is starting to take a stand against Hungary’s Viktor Orban’s cronyism. So far it is freezing up to 13.3 billion euros in transfers.
EIT Urban Mobility, RMIT Europe and the EIT Community have launched a belonging course for sustainable, inclusive and beautiful urban design, as part of the New European Bauhaus initiative.
And for the soul…
Appreciate this group of male cheerleaders.
But it is the French Olympic mascot inadvertently (how? They must have noticed) resembling a clitoris that has made me laugh these days.
Connecting the Dots: Musings on Bridging and Belonging is a monthly column by Míriam Juan-Torres. In it, Míriam reflects on current events, connecting the trends and considering the specificities across countries, applying a bridging and belonging lens and translating concepts from academia for a wider audience. In Connecting the Dots, Míriam carefully curates readings and resources to further expand our understanding and shed light on the complexities of our time. Join our mailing list to stay up to date on the latest of the Democracy & Belonging Forum's curated analysis from Miriam and more.
Editor's note: The ideas expressed in this blog are not necessarily those of the Othering & Belonging Institute or UC Berkeley, but belong to the authors.